Penkerių metų hipotekos palūkanų normos nukrenta žemiau 6%; JK atsilieka nuo G7 konkurentų; Europos akcijos pasiekė trijų mėnesių aukščiausią lygį – kaip tai atsitiko | Verslas


JK penkerių metų fiksuotos hipotekos palūkanos pagaliau nukrito žemiau 6 proc.

Vidutinė penkerių metų fiksuota hipotekos palūkanų norma nukrito žemiau 6% pirmą kartą nuo rinkos suirutės, kurią prieš du mėnesius sukėlė pražūtingas minibiudžetas.

„Moneyfacts“ praneša, kad įprastas penkerių metų fiksuotas sandoris dabar kainuoja 5,95% per metus, o tai yra mažiausia per septynias savaites.

Prieš mėnesį tai sumažėjo 6,5%, bet vis tiek didesnis nei prieš mažąjį biudžetą, kai vidutinės 5 ir 2 metų normos buvo apie 4,75%.

Nuo tada hipotekos palūkanos mažėjo Jeremy Huntas sugriovė savo pirmtako Kwasi Kwartengo planus spalio viduryje. Taip pat padėjo Anglijos bankas, sakydamas, kad rinkos lūkesčiai dėl palūkanų normų kilimo buvo per dideli.

Tikimasi, kad kitą vasarą bankų palūkanų normos sieks daugiau nei 4,5%, palyginti su 6%, kai svaro kursas nukrito iki rekordiškai žemo lygio, o JK vyriausybės skolinimosi išlaidos išaugo.

Dvejų metų fiksuotų hipotekos paskolų išlaidos taip pat sumažėjo; dabar jų vidutinis rodiklis yra 6,13 %, palyginti su 6,65 % prieš mėnesį.

Rachel Springallfinansų ekspertas adresu Moneyfacts.co.uksako, kad šis ruduo bus palengvėjimas norintiems pasiskolinti:

„Skolininkai gali lengviau atsikvėpti, pamatę, kad fiksuotos hipotekos palūkanos pradeda kristi, tačiau gali būti kur kas daugiau galimybių tobulėti. Kadangi vidutinė penkerių metų fiksuota hipotekos palūkanų norma pirmą kartą per septynias savaites nukrenta žemiau 6 %, skolininkai, kurie pristabdė savo būsto nuosavybės planus arba iš tikrųjų nusprendė refinansuoti, dabar gali susigundyti išnagrinėti naujausius siūlomus pasiūlymus.

Bet… tarifai gali dar labiau kristi, Springall prideda:

Iš tiesų, praėjo maždaug du mėnesiai, kai vidutinė dvejų ir penkerių metų fiksuota hipotekos palūkanų norma viršijo 5 % (2022 m. rugsėjo 30 d.), tačiau šiandien tik keletas skolintojų siūlo fiksuotus sandorius, kurių vertė mažesnė nei 5 %.

Skolininkai gali jaustis dar šiek tiek kantrūs prieš įsipareigodami naują fiksuotą hipoteką arba net palaukti iki kitų metų, kad pamatytumėte, kaip rinka atsigaus po pastarojo meto palūkanų normų neapibrėžtumo.

What is happening with UK mortgage rates? Are they going up or down? https://t.co/xzff45UtDb pic.twitter.com/MpEG4qRikI

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 21, 2022

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Time for a recap…

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Some late energy news…

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The UK’s electricity network operator issued a warning that its buffer of spare capacity will narrow this evening, flagging that the grid is struggling to match demand with enough supply.

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While National Grid said it was confident that power margins would be sufficient, the measure was narrow enough to trigger the automatic alert for 7 p.m. to the market.

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The warning was later canceled but it shows the impact a decline in wind generation will have as temperatures plunge this winter.

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GB : Capacity Mechanism Notice Issued for 19:00 this evening. Unlikely to become true as NG ESO will use interconnector trading to increase imports this evening over the coming hours ^PH pic.twitter.com/AX8sOFmJxh

— EnAppSys (@enappsys) November 22, 2022

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British railway workers will carry out fresh 48-hour strikes in December and January, the RMT trade union have said.

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The latest industrial action have been announced after talks with employers collapsed without reaching a resolution to a long dispute over pay that has already disrupted services for months.

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NEW:

– RMT announces another *eight* days of rail strikes before and after Christmas:

– fresh strike action on December 13, 14, 16 & 17 as well as January 3, 4, 6 & 7

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) November 22, 2022

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Back on the drop in mortgage rates (see earlier) Nationwide Building Society announced rate cuts to some of the mortgages it is offering.

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The cuts, of up to 0.3 percentage points, will be made tomorrow.

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The Society said the new rates will include a two-tear tracker rate for people with a 15% deposit, reduced by 0.3 percentage points to 3.94%, with a 999 fee.

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They also include a five-year fixed rate re-mortgage deal for people with a 40% deposit, reduced by 0.26 percentage points to 4.93%, with a 999 fee.

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Henry Jordan, director of mortgages at Nationwide Building Society, said:

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“Continued market stability and the downward trend in swap rates have meant we’ve been able to make further rate reductions on a large number of products across our mortgage range.”

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Q: How does the UK escape its ‘doom loop’ of weak growth?

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The OBR are reluctant to provide policy advice to ministers.

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Professor David Miles says that several shocks have hit the UK since March, including a much higher increase in interest rates than forecast, and the surge in energy costs.

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Miles says UK borrowing costs (measured by bond yields) surged ahead of other advanced Western countries after the mini-budget. They’ve now dropped back in line, but are still much higher than expected in March.

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And market expectations for gas prices in the global market for 2023 are around 80% higher than forecast in March.

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Those are the two reasons why the UK has got ‘a lot poorer’, as Paul Johnson of the IFS warned last week.

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The Treasury committee turns to the OBR’s assumption that fuel duty won’t be frozen next March, and will rise by 23%.

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OBR chief Richard Hughes says the watchdog’s work is based on government policy. Back in March, then-chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a 5p per litre cut to duty, which would be reversed after a year.

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That remained part of the ‘policy assumptions’ which the Treasury gave the OBR to use for this month’s forecasts.

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Lifting fuel duty as planned would add 12p per litre to petrol and diesel.

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If the government doesn’t go ahead, it would cost £6bn, he explains.

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That being said, no chancellor since 2010 has actually gone ahead with the planned indexation of fuel duty, Hughes grins – but many leave the decision until late in the day, becauase it flatters the forecasts.

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Over in parliament, the Treasury committee are questioning top officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility about last week’s autumn statement.

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There’s a live-feed at the top of this blog.

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OBR chair Richard Hughes has been explaining that it’s a ‘good principle’ that fiscal changes produced alongside economic forecasts.

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The fiscal watchdog had been told in early September that Kwasi Kwarteng wouldn’t want a formal forecast for the mini-budget (an omission that contributed to the market panic).

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Q: Why are the OBR’s forecasts so different than the Bank of England’s forecasts?

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Hughes replies that the OBR’s growth projections are more optimistic – showing a shorter UK recession and a recovery to a higher level.

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But he insists the OBR’s view is in line with othe forecastses, while the Bank is ‘a bit of an outlier’ in being so pessimisic.

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The difference is partly due to a different view on whether the savings rate will fall (OBR) or rise (BoE), but also because the OBR drew up its forecasts more recently, so captures falls in energy costs and interest rate probabilities.

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House sales held steady in October in the face of turmoil in the City and Westminster.

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The volume of transactions increased by 2% month-on-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to HM Revenue and Customs figures.

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An estimated 108,480 sales took place, which was also 38% higher than in October 2021 – when a stamp duty holiday in England and Northern Ireland ended.

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/644.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c248a08edc1014a77bb7bbb02c8e89f8″,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/91bf678dcf083884b95e29bdee3a1cc3586173d1/0_0_644_511/master/644.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=45f63a6de6835b0c4dccf32e213b43a9″,”width”:960}]}],”elementId”:”2ee55b7c-7c31-4f1f-bda4-0ec39c100956″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Those deals will have been agreed a few months earlier, before the mini-budget mayhem.

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So with the economy weak, and interest rates due to keep rising until next summer, the market may cool.

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Lucian Cook, Savills head of residential research, says:

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\n

“Sales have also continued to be supported by people looking to lock into existing mortgage deals, that look cheap in the context of current interest rates.

\n

However, a number of lead indicators – including the increased cost of borrowing and rising cost-of-living – are pointing towards falls in transactions over coming months, as buyers and lenders become more cautious.

\n

These numbers also continue to show the distortive impact of last year’s stamp duty holiday.

\n

We predict transactions volumes will slow to 870 000 in 2023, with equity-driven prime markets holding up stronger than first-time buyers and mortgaged landlords, who rely more heavily on debt.”

\n

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This morning’s UK public finances report shows that the government’s tax take has risen this year.

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    \n

  • Income tax, national insurance and capital gains tax receipts for April to October rose by £28.1bn to £235.6bn.

  • \n

  • Stamp duty receipts came in at £12.4 billion, up by £2.2bn on last year

  • \n

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Helen Morrissey, senior pensions and retirement analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown:

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\n

“HMRC’s tax take continues to soar with the amounts of income tax, capital gains, inheritance tax and stamp duty heading skywards as a combination of threshold freezes and strong demand for property continue to play out.

\n

The squeeze looks set to continue with these taxes taking centre stage in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement with income tax and inheritance tax frozen for a further two years and the threshold for additional tax rate payers slashed. Capital gains tax changes will penalise those holding investments outside ISAs and pensions and stamp duty changes may force one last stampede to purchase that dream home before the threshold goes back down in 2025.

\n

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Stamp duty land tax receipts* hit another record high with £17.7 billion raised in the year to October 2022
But could this be the peak?
(*residential & commercial property) https://t.co/4jpopAmDvX

— Neal Hudson (@resi_analyst) November 22, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/status/1594952611517829120″,”id”:”1594952611517829120″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e98cf990-0617-4229-bb27-a9e0361b9201″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669123637000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”13.27 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669124162000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.36 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669124162000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.36 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.36″,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637cc1bf8f084a383e121716″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

In the City, the UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has reached its highest level since mid-September.

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The Footsie is up 47 points today at 7,424 points, lifted by oil giants BP (+5.8%) and Shell (+3.6%) and smaller producer Harbour Energy (+7)after reports that Opec+ might lift oil production were denied.

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Wholesale gas prices are rising in Europe today, as cold weather lifts demand.

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The UK day-ahead gas price is up almost 6% at 118p per therm, having dropped below 40p in mid-October

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European gas price edges higher as colder weather boosts demand and on Gazprom's Ukraine transit threat. Gazprom may cut Ukraine gas transit from Nov 28, the company said in a statement. (via BBG) pic.twitter.com/17jwSFpR61

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 22, 2022

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The OECD has criticised the UK’s energy price cap, in its new assessment of Britain’s economy (online here).

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It warns that the ‘untargeted’ pledge will force the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy to tighten more and raising debt service costs, saying:

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Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation.

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It also fears that a particularly cold winter could risk supply disruptions, exposing the economy to rolling power cuts.

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Further progress in trade deals could also support growth, the OECD adds

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Despite mounting economic gloom, the OECD is urging central banks to keep raising interest rates.

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It argues that it is important to keep fighting soaring and pervasive inflation, despite the clear slowdown in growth, saying:

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The higher price of energy has helped trigger increasing prices across a broad basket of goods and services. Tighter monetary policy and decelerating growth will help to eventually moderate inflation.

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The world’s central banks must keep raising interest rates to fight inflation, even as the global economy sinks into a significant slowdown, the OECD says https://t.co/yF2KDh4r0n

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 22, 2022

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Europe will suffer the most from the global slowdown next year, the OECD says, even though the world economy should avoid a recession.

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World economic growth is set to slow from 3.1% this year to 2.2% next year before accelerating to 2.7% in 2024, today’s new forecasts show.

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And European countries will bear the brunt of the energy shock, and the disruption to business activity from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

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Acting OECD chief economist Alvaro Santos Pereira says:

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“Our central scenario is not a global recession, but a significant growth slowdown for the world economy in 2023, as well as still high, albeit declining, inflation in many countries.”

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The global economy should avoid a recession next year but the worst energy crisis since the 1970s will trigger a sharp slowdown with Europe hit hardest, the OECD said on Tuesday, urging central banks to keep hiking interest rates. https://t.co/EVN6h7Kw1k

— Intl. Business Times (@IBTimes) November 22, 2022

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The OECD also warns that the global economy is reeling from the Ukraine war, suffering slowing growth and high inflation.

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Introducing its latest economic forecasts, the Paris-based organisation says:

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The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.

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With the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering, the war is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on prices, above all for food and energy. Global GDP stagnated in the second quarter of 2022 and output declined in the G20 economies.

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High inflation is persisting for longer than expected. In many economies, inflation in the first half of 2022 was at its highest since the 1980s. With recent indicators taking a turn for the worse, the global economic outlook has darkened.

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The UK economy will contract more than any of the world’s other seven most advanced nations next year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns.

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The OECD has slashed its forecasts for UK growth, as high inflation and worker shortages hit the economy, in its latest economic outlook.

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The UK economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023 – down from a previous forecast of flatlining – and grow by just 0.2% in 2024.

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Germany is the only other G7 country expected to contract next year, with a 0.3% drop in GDP expected.

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Italyis set to grow by 0.2%, with the US expected to expand by 0.5%, France by 0.6%, Canada by 1%, with Japan leading the pack with 1.8%

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🌎 #OECD: 2023 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH TO SLOW TO 2.2% FROM 3.1% IN 2022 – BBG
*Link: https://t.co/ASKHazdS20 pic.twitter.com/DG8dHTmxy6

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 22, 2022

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The UK is likely to be the second weakest performer of the world’s big economies next year, behind only Russia.

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Our economic editor Larry Elliott reports:

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Although most countries have had their growth forecasts cut by the OECD since June, only Russia’s 5.6% contraction is forecast to be more severe than Britain’s. The poor performance is forecast to continue in 2024 with expansion of 0.2% – the joint weakest alongside Russia.

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The OECD’s acting chief economist, Álvaro Pereira, said he was expecting a less severe downturn next year than the 1.4% decline pencilled in by the Office for Budget Responsibility in last week’s autumn statement, but a more subdued recovery in 2024 than the OBR had pencilled in.

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Pereira said the OECD thought interest rates would peak at a lower level than the OBR was anticipating, and that the UK would suffer a four-quarter recession ending in the middle of 2023.

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The average five-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped below 6% for the first time since the market turmoil created by the disastrous mini-budget two months ago.

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Moneyfacts reports that the typical five-year fixed deal now costs 5.95% per year, the lowest in seven weeks.

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That’s down 6.5% a month ago, but still higher than before the mini-budget, when average 5-year and 2-year rates were both around 4.75%.

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Mortgage rates have been dropping since Jeremy Hunt tore up his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s plans in mid-October. The Bank of England has also helped, by saying that market expectations of rate rises were too high.

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Bank rates is expected to peak over 4.5% next summer, down from 6% expected when the pound slumped to a record low and UK government borrowing costs spiked.

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Two-year fixed mortgages costs have also dropped; they now average 6.13%, down from 6.65% a month ago.

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Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, says this fall will be a relief to those looking to borrow:

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“Borrowers may well breathe a sigh of relief to see that fixed mortgage rates are starting to fall, but there may be much more room for improvement. As the average five-year fixed mortgage rate falls below 6% for the first time in seven weeks, borrowers who paused their home ownership plans, or indeed parked the idea of refinancing, may now be tempted to scrutinise the latest deals on offer.

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But… rates could fall further still, Springall adds:

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Indeed, it’s been around two months since both the average two and five-year fixed mortgage rate breached 5% (30 September 2022), but today only a handful of lenders are offering sub-5% fixed deals.

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Borrowers may feel they have to be patient for a little while longer yet before they commit to a new fixed mortgage, or even wait until next year to see how the market recovers from the recent interest rate uncertainty.”

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What is happening with UK mortgage rates? Are they going up or down? https://t.co/xzff45UtDb pic.twitter.com/MpEG4qRikI

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 21, 2022

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The oil price, and shares in oil companies, are both rebounding today after Saudi Arabia denied it was discussing an increase in Opec production.

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Brent crude has gained 1.5% to $88.80 per barrel this morning, having slumped by $5 per barrel to around $83/barrel yesterday to a 10-month low.

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BP’s shares have jumped over 5%, followed by North Sea producer Harbour Energy (+4.7%) and Shell (+3.2%).

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They fell on Monday, after reports that Opec and its allies could increase output by 500,000 per day.

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It’s been a dramatic time in the oil market, as Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, says:

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Saudi Arabia’s denial of the output increase contributed to a 12% round-trip in front-month Brent prices over the past 24 hours.

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It is possible that the suggestions to expand Opec+ production were floated to gauge the price reaction. The initial negative follow-through implies that demand concerns warrant a relatively modest increase in output if Opec+ is looking to stabilize prices once the EU embargo kicks in.

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Dramatic moves in #OIL
Brent crude oil traded to a low of $82.31/bbl overnight
But then recovered to $87.45/bbl

As Saudi Arabia issued a statement denying WSJ report that OPEC+ producers were considering a production increase

— Harshada Sawant हर्षदा सावंत 🇮🇳 (@AEHarshada) November 22, 2022

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G4S security van parked outside a bank in Loughborough”,”caption”:”A G4S security van parked outside a bank in Loughborough”,”credit”:”Photograph: Darren 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ttps://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b28998341ca075fb99b30ebfbf5a45bb7cb4d347/79_150_2242_1345/master/2242.jpg?width=660&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=e98d2eb73ba9ba25bdd6e028cd1e1081″,”width”:1320},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b28998341ca075fb99b30ebfbf5a45bb7cb4d347/79_150_2242_1345/master/2242.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=83ea59a6b64c9c99f8bd2f188881e319″,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b28998341ca075fb99b30ebfbf5a45bb7cb4d347/79_150_2242_1345/master/2242.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=a68fe75f4a83597f76b39cb37969e9f2″,”width”:960}]}],”elementId”:”d72ba89d-7310-4377-b213-6455c6cbffac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

There are fears of cash shortages in the run-up to Christmas, after more than 1,000 security workers who deliver cash and coins to some of the UK’s biggest banks and supermarkets voted to strike in December.

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The strike by 1,200 members of the GMB union who work for the security company G4S is due to take place from 3am on 5 December, after 97% of workers voted for industrial action in a row over pay.

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G4S Cash Solutions clients include Barclays, Lloyds and HSBC as well as retailers including Tesco, Asda, Aldi, Morrisons and Boots, and the pub chains Wetherspoon’s and Greene King.

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G4S Cash, part of Allied International, initially offered members a part-pay freeze, and then proposed a 4.5% pay rise and a lump-sum bonus based on contracted hours, the GMB said.

\n

“,”elementId”:”b34ebdcb-66d2-46be-bc8e-03a5e6bed30c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/22/g4s-strike-cash-barclays-asda-tesco”,”text”:”G4S strike prompts fears of festive cash shortages at banks and shops”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”142176e9-cc0e-4b95-b036-c54af095980f”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669105100000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.18 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669113348000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.35 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669105228000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.20 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.20″,”title”:”G4S strike prompts fears of festive cash shortages at banks and shops”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Julia Kollewe”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/contributor/2014/10/15/1413385261859/Julia-Kollewe.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=1fd976c7e16b5325a5b81f24809000f7″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Julia-Kollewe,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=23f212ea863acfa1e5744c02a3c246fd”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c7fbc8f08b0d3de4551ba”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, on October’s jump in borrowing:

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\n

“It is right that the government increased borrowing to support millions of business and families throughout the pandemic, and the aftershocks of Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

“But to tackle inflation and ensure the economic stability needed for long-term growth, it is vital that we put the public finances back on a more sustainable path.

“There is no easy path to balancing the nation’s books, but we have taken the necessary decisions to get debt falling while actively taking steps to protect jobs, public services and the most vulnerable.”

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“,”elementId”:”6f3f3564-61a1-4f9b-8166-cbfd1a8e5ad9″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669103548000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.52 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669103671000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.54 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669103671000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.54 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.54″,”title”:”Hunt: It’s right to borrow to support firm and families”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c67b98f08fcbbeda2b6b8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”42788b56-4c1f-49ce-bcb7-511503c6a565″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

UK government borrowing jumped last month, lifted by support with household energy bills, and soaring inflation which drove up interest payments.

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Britain’s public sector net borrowing came in at £13.5bn in October, more than £4bn more than the £9.2bn which was borrowed in October 2021 to balance the books.

“,”elementId”:”440164f4-653b-4c51-821c-a2c012ebfaf8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It’s the fourth highest October borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

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Public sector net borrowing, excluding public sector banks, was £13.5 billion in October 2022.

This was £4.4 billion more than in October 2021 and the fourth highest October borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

➡️ https://t.co/e92w9opnec pic.twitter.com/aAP3fwT1xk

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 22, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1594949192698454017″,”id”:”1594949192698454017″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”cb919d34-041b-43c9-8178-67f3df53bfbb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Government spending was lifted by £1.9bn by the cost of helping households with energy bills. That £400 payment is being paid in six monthly installments, starting in October.

“,”elementId”:”94b5d59d-c9a5-4958-937e-42d14367c849″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Former PM Liz Truss’s pledge to cap household bills at an average of £2,500 per year also added over £1bn to government spending.

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Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, says:

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“The public finances continue to face a tug of war between demand for energy support and the overarching need to balance the books.

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As things stand, the headroom against meeting the new fiscal targets is hanging by a thread, and we expect that they could easily be missed thanks to a less favourable economic outlook compared to the OBR’s forecast.”

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Public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, was £2,459.9 billion at the end of October 2022, or around 97.5% of GDP.

An increase of £148.3 billion but a decrease of 0.5 percentage points of GDP compared with October 2021. pic.twitter.com/MgdPGEj3XS

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 22, 2022

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who outlined a £55bn package of spending cuts and tax increases last week, has warned that “There is no easy path to balancing the nation’s books” (more from the chancellor shortly).

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Hunt also announced more support for energy bills last week, beyond April, which will push borrowing higher still.

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October’s borrowing figure was actually lower than City economists expected.

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But the UK spent £6.1bn on interest payments on the national debt. Over half that bill (£3.3bn) was due to the surge in the retail price index, which sets the interest payment on index-linked gilts.

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Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that the national debt will peak at almost 100% of national output in three years, driven up by higher debt interest, inflation-linked welfare spending, and a weaker economy.

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Underlying public sector net debt (excluding the Bank of England) rises to a 63-year peak of 98% of GDP in 2025-26 and then falls slightly to 97% of GDP in 2027-28. Medium-term debt is 18% of GDP – over £400bn – higher than forecast in March.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/9BlZ4ugvWL

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 17, 2022

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Debt interest costs peak this year at close to a post-war high of 12% of public sector revenues and 5% of GDP, due to higher RPI inflation, Bank Rate and gilt yields.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/k2QbuCeVYG

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 17, 2022

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Also coming up today

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is to tell business leaders at Britain’s ‘immigration dependency’ must end.

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Bosses have been pushing Westminster to use immigration to solve worker shortages and boost economic growth. But the Labour leader will tell the CBI conference this morning that UK businesses must wean themselves off “cheap labour” and that a low-pay model for growth is no longer working for the British people.

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My colleague Jessica Elgot reports:

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The Labour leader is expected to say to the Confederation of British Industry conference that his party will be “pragmatic” about the shortage of workers and not ignore the need for skilled migrants – but stressed that any changes “will come with new conditions for business”.

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Starmer will say Labour expects to keep a points-based immigration system and to train up more workers, especially in high-skilled jobs and the NHS. But he stopped short of pledging that overall migration should come down – a promise that Rishi Sunak renewed last week.

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Energy regulator Ofgem is warning that suppliers have been failing vulnerable customers, as people face a cold and costly winter, with 5 particularly weak.

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For example, some suppliers are setting debt repayments so high that customers felt they couldn’t top-up their pre-payment meters.

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The OECD is publishing its twice-yearly analysis of the major global economic trends and prospects for the next two year. It’ll show how advanced economies, including the UK, are expected to fare….

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And the Treasury committee will question top officials from the Office for National Statistics, about last week’s autumn statement

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The agenda

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  • 7am GMT: UK public finances for October

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  • 10am GMT: OECD publishes its economic outlook

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  • 2.15pm GMT: Treasury committee hearing on the autumn statement, with the OBR

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  • 3pm GMT: Eurozone consumer confidence estimate for November

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Pagrindiniai įvykiai

Uždarymo įrašas

Laikas apibendrinti…

Nacionalinis tinklas įspėja apie maitinimo šaltinį, nes vėjo generavimas mažėja

Keletas vėlyvų energijos naujienų…

JK elektros tinklo operatorius paskelbė įspėjimą, kad šį vakarą jos laisvų pajėgumų buferis susiaurės, pažymėdamas, kad tinklas stengiasi patenkinti paklausą ir pakankamai pasiūlos.

Nors „National Grid“ teigė esantis įsitikinęs, kad galios maržos pakaks, priemonė buvo pakankamai siaura, kad į rinką būtų įjungtas automatinis įspėjimas 19 val.

Vėliau įspėjimas buvo atšauktas, tačiau jis rodo, kokią įtaką vėjo generavimo sumažėjimas turės, kai temperatūra šią žiemą nukris.

GB : Capacity Mechanism Notice Issued for 19:00 this evening. Unlikely to become true as NG ESO will use interconnector trading to increase imports this evening over the coming hours ^PH pic.twitter.com/AX8sOFmJxh

— EnAppSys (@enappsys) November 22, 2022

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GB : talpos mechanizmo pranešimas Išleistas šį vakarą 19:00 val. Mažai tikėtina, kad tai taps tiesa, nes NG ESO naudos jungiamųjų linijų prekybą, kad padidintų importą šį vakarą per ateinančias valandas ^PH pic.twitter.com/AX8sOFmJxh

– EnAppSys (@enappsys) 2022 m. lapkričio 22 d

JK geležinkelių darbuotojai planuoja tolesnius streikus gruodžio ir sausio mėn

Didžiosios Britanijos geležinkelių darbuotojai gruodį ir sausį surengs naujus 48 valandų streikus, pranešė RMT profesinė sąjunga.

Apie naujausius kolektyvinius veiksmus buvo pranešta po to, kai derybos su darbdaviais žlugo nepasiekus ilgalaikio ginčo dėl darbo užmokesčio, kuris jau kelis mėnesius trukdė teikti paslaugas.

NEW:

– RMT announces another *eight* days of rail strikes before and after Christmas:

– fresh strike action on December 13, 14, 16 & 17 as well as January 3, 4, 6 & 7

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) November 22, 2022

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NAUJIENA:

– RMT skelbia dar vieną *aštuonios* dienų streikus prieš ir po Kalėdų:

– naujas streikas gruodžio 13, 14, 16 ir 17 d., taip pat sausio 3, 4, 6 ir 7 d.

– Jimas Pickardas (@PickardJE) 2022 m. lapkričio 22 d

Kitas svarbus dalykas iš Iždo komiteto klausymo:

Andy King explains why debt interest costs have risen.

The rise in interest rates since March means that the cost of servicing that debt doubles in cash terms to over £100bn and jumps as a % of government revenue from under 5% pre-pandemic to 8.5% by 2027-28.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/HC58xQEZCm

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

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Andy King paaiškina, kodėl išaugo skolos palūkanų išlaidos.

Palūkanų normos kilusios nuo kovo mėn. reiškia, kad šios skolos aptarnavimo sąnaudos grynaisiais pinigais padvigubėja iki daugiau nei 100 mlrd. GBP ir 2027–2028 m. šoktelėja kaip procentas nuo vyriausybės pajamų nuo mažiau nei 5% prieš pandemiją iki 8,5%.#RudensPareiškimas pic.twitter.com/HC58xQEZCm

– Biudžeto atsakomybės biuras (@OBR_UK) 2022 m. lapkričio 22 d

Štai tvarkinga diagrama, rodanti, kaip JK kitais metais atsiliks nuo kitų G20 šalių, išskyrus Rusiją, kuriai taikomos griežtos sankcijos:

EBPO augimo prognozės

Europos vertybinių popierių rinkos šią popietę pasiekė aukščiausią lygį per tris mėnesius, nes energijos akcijos toliau kyla.

Stoxx 600 indeksas pakilo 0,8%, iki tokio lygio, kuris nematytas nuo rugpjūčio.

Visoje šalyje mažinamos fiksuotos palūkanų normos hipotekos

Grįžti į hipotekos palūkanų kritimą (žiūrėkite anksčiau) Nacionalinė statybos bendrija paskelbė sumažinusi kai kurių siūlomų hipotekų palūkanų normas.

Rytoj bus sumažintos iki 0,3 procentinio punkto.

Draugija teigė, kad į naujus tarifus bus įtrauktas dviejų ašarų sekimo tarifas žmonėms, turintiems 15% indėlį, sumažintas 0,3 procentinio punkto iki 3,94%, su 999 mokesčiu.

Jie taip pat apima penkerių metų fiksuotos palūkanų normos pakartotinio būsto paskolos sandorį žmonėms, turintiems 40% indėlį, sumažintą 0,26 procentinio punkto iki 4,93%, už 999 mokestį.

Henris Jordanashipotekos direktorius Šalies mastu Pastatas Visuomenėsakė:

„Nuolatinis rinkos stabilumas ir apsikeitimo palūkanų normų mažėjimo tendencija lėmė, kad galėjome toliau mažinti palūkanų normas daugeliui mūsų hipotekos paskolų produktų.

David Miles explains the impact of higher global energy and food prices on our economic forecasts. They’re expected to push inflation up to 11% this year, but inflation would have peaked 2½ ppts higher without the Government’s energy price guarantee.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/i73JuJRvRA

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

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Davidas Milesas paaiškina aukštesnių pasaulinių energijos ir maisto kainų įtaką mūsų ekonomikos prognozėms. Tikimasi, kad šiais metais infliacija padidės iki 11%, tačiau be vyriausybės energijos kainų garantijos infliacija būtų pasiekusi 2½ procentinio punkto aukščiausią tašką.#RudensPareiškimas pic.twitter.com/i73JuJRvRA

– Biudžeto atsakomybės biuras (@OBR_UK) 2022 m. lapkričio 22 d

Ekonominio neveiklumo augimas, kai daugiau žmonių palieka darbo jėgą, taip pat paliko JK ekonomiką silpnoje padėtyje, pažymi OBR vadovas Richardas Hughesas.

Jis sako, kad to priežastys yra sudėtingos, tačiau apima ankstyvą išėjimą į pensiją ir didėjančią blogą sveikatą po pandemijos.

OBR: skolinimosi normos ir energijos sąnaudos daro JK skurdesnę

Klausimas: Kaip JK išvengia silpno augimo „pasmerkimo kilpos“?

OBR nenori teikti politikos patarimų ministrams.

Profesorius Davidas Milesas teigia, kad nuo kovo JK ištiko keli sukrėtimai, įskaitant daug didesnį nei prognozuota palūkanų normų padidėjimą ir energijos sąnaudų padidėjimą.

Milesas teigia, kad JK skolinimosi kaštai (matuojami pagal obligacijų pajamingumą) šoktelėjo aplenkdami kitas pažangias Vakarų šalis po mini biudžeto. Dabar jie sumažėjo eilėje, bet vis dar yra daug didesni, nei tikėtasi kovo mėnesį.

O rinkos lūkesčiai dėl dujų kainų pasaulinėje rinkoje 2023 m. yra maždaug 80% didesni nei prognozuota kovo mėnesį.

Tai yra dvi priežastys, kodėl JK tapo „daug skurdesnė“, kaip praėjusią savaitę perspėjo Paulas Johnsonas iš IFS.

OBR has told the Treasury select committee the Treasury told them they were fine to factor in the 23% fuel duty increase in April into their forecast

This is at odds with what ministers have been saying, who said it was the OBR assuming the increase would go ahead – not them…

— Nadine Batchelor-Hunt (@nadinebh_) November 22, 2022

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OBR informavo iždo atrankos komitetą, kad iždas jiems pasakė, kad į savo prognozę atsižvelgė 23 % kuro mokesčio padidinimą balandžio mėn.

Tai prieštarauja tam, ką sakė ministrai, kurie sakė, kad OBR darys prielaidą, kad padidinimas vyks, o ne jie…

– Nadine Batchelor-Hunt (@nadinebh_) 2022 m. lapkričio 22 d

OBR: “Our forecast is based on govt policy which was announced back in March… it was a policy as confirmed by the Treasury when they gave us the policy assumptions to use when we produced [the report] this month…”

— Nadine Batchelor-Hunt (@nadinebh_) November 22, 2022

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OBR: „Mūsų prognozė grindžiama vyriausybės politika, kuri buvo paskelbta dar kovo mėn… [the report] šį mėnesį…”

– Nadine Batchelor-Hunt (@nadinebh_) 2022 m. lapkričio 22 d

OBR: Degalų mokesčio nedidinimas kainuotų 6 mlrd

Iždo komitetas remiasi OBR prielaida, kad kitų metų kovą degalų mokestis nebus įšaldytas ir padidės 23%.

OBR vadovas Richardas Hughesas sako, kad sargybinio darbas grindžiamas vyriausybės politika. Kovo mėnesį tuometinis kancleris Rishi Sunak paskelbė, kad bus sumažintas 5 pensai už litrą, kuris po metų bus panaikintas.

Tai liko „politikos prielaidų“, kurias Iždas davė OBR naudoti šio mėnesio prognozėms, dalis.

Pakėlus degalų mokestį, kaip planuota, benzinas ir dyzelinas padidėtų 12 p už litrą.

Jei vyriausybė nesiims veiksmų, tai kainuotų 6 milijardus svarų, aiškina jis.

Nepaisant to, nė vienas kancleris nuo 2010 m. iš tikrųjų nevykdė planuoto kuro mokesčio indeksavimo, nusišypso Hughesas, tačiau daugelis palieka sprendimą vėlai, nes tai pateisina prognozes.

Kl.: Ar pasakėte Liz Truss ir Kwasi Kwarteng, kaip pavojinga būtų nepateikti prognozės iš OBR?

OBR vadovas Richardas Hughesas teigia, kad iki rugsėjo 23 d. (mini biudžeto sudarymo dienos) nebuvo jokių diskusijų su kancleriu ar ministru pirmininku.

K: Ar mums reikia geresnio fiskalinio įvykio apibrėžimo?

Hughesas sutinka, kad nuo kovo mėnesio įvyko penki fiskaliniai įvykiai (įskaitant praėjusios savaitės rudens pareiškimą, kuriame buvo pateikta OBR prognozė).

Geroji praktika, kurią apibrėžia bet kas… sakytų, kad neturėtumėte priimti fiskalinių sprendimų be atnaujintos ekonomikos perspektyvos.

On the Government’s new rules, Richard Hughes explains that they are met by margins that are small relative to March and to the risks around this forecast.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/KM91plyh7z

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

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OBR vadovas Richardas Hughesas parlamentarams sako, kad investicijos į verslą JK kurį laiką buvo „gana nuviliančios“.

Kai mus ištinka vartojimo skatinamas nuosmukis, sunku pastebėti, kad daugelis įmonių didina investicijas – ypač todėl, kad dėl didėjančių palūkanų normų skolinimasis brangsta.

OBR komiteto narys Deividas Mylios sveria, sakydamas, kad žmonės greičiausiai pasiners į savo santaupas, nes nuosmukis nukentėjo namų ūkių pajamose (o ne klysta ir daugiau taupys).