Svaras beveik pasiekė dviejų savaičių rekordą, nes Kwartengas pristato skolų mažinimo planą – verslo gyvai | Verslas


People looking to enter the housing market, or to remorgage their loans, are already facing the consequences of the mini-budget market mayhem.

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After pulling mortgage deals off the market last week, British banks are re-entering the mortgage market with interest rates approaching 6% .

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The FT has more details:

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Barclays, Skipton Building Society, NatWest, Virgin Money and Nationwide are among the lenders to increase rates on new mortgage deals in the wake of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini” Budget just over a week ago, which sent gilt yields soaring.

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The average rate on two-year fixed deals jumped to 5.75 per cent on Monday, up from 4.74 per cent on the day of Kwarteng’s announcement on September 23, according to data provider Moneyfacts.

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The move will protect lenders from higher interest rate, with the money markets currently predicting the Bank of England’s base rate could hit almost 5.5% by next summer.

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But it makes mortgages less affordable, and some unlucky people will find they are now priced out of the market through no fault of their own.

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Lenders insulate themselves with higher rates to see out the next few years, leaving many left out in the coldhttps://t.co/sE5w9R8EWZ

— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) October 3, 2022

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Kwasi Kwarteng’s decision to accelerate the publication of his plan to cut Britain’s debt could lead the Bank of England to raise interest rates less sharply next month.

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That’s the view of Conservative MP Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury Committee, who argues:

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Provided the OBR forecast and new fiscal targets provide reassurance then bringing these forward should calm markets more quickly and reduce the upward pressure on interest rates to the benefit of millions of people up and down the country.

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“In particular getting the forecast out ahead of the MPC meeting on 3rd November might help to reassure our rate setters that they can go with a smaller base rate increase than would otherwise be the case.”

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The Bank is due to set interest rates on November 3rd, and chief economist Huw Pill has already indicated there could be a ‘significant’ rise. The money markets are currently pricing in a rise of at least 1%.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

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The pound continues to recover from its mini-budget shock, thanks to a pair of u-turns from Kwasi Kwarteng.

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The chancellor is bringing forward the announcement of his plan to bring down UK debts in the medium term, following pressure from the financial markets, economists and some MPs desperate to see how the ‘growth plan’, and large tax cuts, will be paid for.

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Kwarteng, who was previously set to publish his medium-term fiscal plan alongside a set of economic forecasts on 23rd November , will now announce it sooner – likely by the end of the month.

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Crucially for investors, we should also finally get full forecasts from Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

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News of the plan broke last night, just hours after Kwarteng ripped up the plan to scrap the 45p top tax rate for the highest earnings.

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As one government source put it to Reuters: “OBR can move quicker, so can we”.

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And so can the pound. And after hitting a record low last week around $1.035, it has now climbed above its mini-budget levels to around $1.135, the highest in almost two week.

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The recovery for sterling has settled some nerves in the currency market.

NatWest Markets’ head of economics and markets strategy John Briggs said dropping the 45p tax band had been well-received by investors.

“,”elementId”:”4b824a4e-7285-432d-81a9-2db9b6b92434″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

\n

“The about-face … will not have a huge impact on the overall UK fiscal situation in our view.

\n

“[but] Investors took it as a signal that the UK government could and is at least partially willing to walk back from its intentions that so disrupted markets over the past week.”

\n

“,”elementId”:”a76613fe-61b2-4d04-bc0e-21c097103084″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Bank of England’s emergency intervention in the long-term borrowing gilt market is also helping calm nerves, although yesterday it only bought £22m of 30-year gilts and rejected £1.8bn of offers.

“,”elementId”:”626794c5-cf86-43ab-80e7-806b4a6de457″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

That looked like a signal to the markets that while the BoE was determined to maintain stability, they would not buy gilts at any price to keep borrowing costs low

“,”elementId”:”dd5ab643-9590-4162-8f03-27216e6af872″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Sending clear signal that this is a financial stability operation and they are not in the business of keeping gilt yields low for the sake of it

ie they are deliberately pushing back on the fiscal dominance narrative. Ball back in government's court

— Rupert Harrison (@rbrharrison) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1576945940505645057″,”id”:”1576945940505645057″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”f3516588-2dbf-43aa-a15f-4cee9b1c760d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Yeterday, the IFS thinktank warned that mammoth spending cuts would be needed to get borrowing back on track, if Kwarteng presses on with the rest of his tax-cutting mini-budget.

“,”elementId”:”360311e9-5068-473c-b8a9-4d98fcacb501″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

From a fiscal point of view important to remember cut to 45p rate was just about smallest part of the “mini budget”. What was a £45bn tax cutting package is now a £43bn package.

This U turn has, in itself, essentially no effect on fiscal sustainability.

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1576872608687325184″,”id”:”1576872608687325184″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”52f46371-6382-4ef4-8086-2a81fff5ad3c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And a new political row is brewing, over whether the government will lift universal credit and other working age benefits in line with inflation.

“,”elementId”:”baec4766-2960-459d-9bfc-90533ab33c28″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Failure to do so would be ‘hostile and harmful’, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation warned last weekend, and deliver a devastating blow to millions of families on low incomes.

“,”elementId”:”10f6ac36-3d5f-4550-a4a7-8ca3b121e86d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/sep/30/failure-to-raise-benefits-would-be-hostile-and-harmful-truss-is-warned”,”text”:”Failure to raise benefits would be ‘hostile and harmful’, Truss is warned”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”a5aad81d-3df9-4acc-bba2-c7b3a4885642″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

“,”elementId”:”48beefe8-b4bf-40f2-b7d0-6af7b79fb33d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

    \n

  • 10am BST: Eurozone PPI index (showing how fast factory prices rose in August)

  • \n

  • 2pm BST: IMF to release October 2022 Global Financial Stability Report Analytical Chapters 3

  • \n

  • 3pm BST: US factory orders for August

  • \n

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Pagrindiniai įvykiai

People looking to enter the housing market, or to remorgage their loans, are already facing the consequences of the mini-budget market mayhem.

“,”elementId”:”b85d83ed-878a-4882-bd35-d16fbdf3a3a4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

After pulling mortgage deals off the market last week, British banks are re-entering the mortgage market with interest rates approaching 6% .

“,”elementId”:”c7b74e4b-1b20-46e1-a12e-4027acbd6062″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The FT has more details:

“,”elementId”:”7a4b8672-9376-4cba-bc8f-7fcae6722fdc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

\n

Barclays, Skipton Building Society, NatWest, Virgin Money and Nationwide are among the lenders to increase rates on new mortgage deals in the wake of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini” Budget just over a week ago, which sent gilt yields soaring.

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The average rate on two-year fixed deals jumped to 5.75 per cent on Monday, up from 4.74 per cent on the day of Kwarteng’s announcement on September 23, according to data provider Moneyfacts.

\n

“,”elementId”:”8b7ca39d-2200-4e75-a923-e317a8cd7c99″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The move will protect lenders from higher interest rate, with the money markets currently predicting the Bank of England’s base rate could hit almost 5.5% by next summer.

“,”elementId”:”17896e68-b57a-4fe5-ae02-8cc2596456d6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But it makes mortgages less affordable, and some unlucky people will find they are now priced out of the market through no fault of their own.

“,”elementId”:”2077485a-6991-4a60-808a-24ab8b3b0b78″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Lenders insulate themselves with higher rates to see out the next few years, leaving many left out in the coldhttps://t.co/sE5w9R8EWZ

— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/emmafildes/status/1576935757516013568″,”id”:”1576935757516013568″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”36be15d0-9f59-4078-863d-bb801b2cdc22″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1664865514000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.38 BST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1664866409000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.53 BST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1664866409000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.53 BST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.53″,”title”:”Mortgage rates rise sharply as squeeze tightens”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Oct 2022 07.53 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 4 Oct 2022 07.31 BST”},{“id”:”633bd2558f08ec87f1107aa9″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Kwasi Kwarteng’s decision to accelerate the publication of his plan to cut Britain’s debt could lead the Bank of England to raise interest rates less sharply next month.

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That’s the view of Conservative MP Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury Committee, who argues:

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Provided the OBR forecast and new fiscal targets provide reassurance then bringing these forward should calm markets more quickly and reduce the upward pressure on interest rates to the benefit of millions of people up and down the country.

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“In particular getting the forecast out ahead of the MPC meeting on 3rd November might help to reassure our rate setters that they can go with a smaller base rate increase than would otherwise be the case.”

\n

“,”elementId”:”c953e47d-2fff-4a89-8e73-585ed0b130d6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Bank is due to set interest rates on November 3rd, and chief economist Huw Pill has already indicated there could be a ‘significant’ rise. The money markets are currently pricing in a rise of at least 1%.

“,”elementId”:”a0235982-91e9-450e-a681-c07bd024ac59″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1664865085000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.31 BST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1664865284000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.34 BST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1664865284000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.34 BST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.34″,”title”:”Mel Stride: This could mean smaller interest rate rise in November”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Oct 2022 07.53 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 4 Oct 2022 07.31 BST”},{“id”:”633bc26e8f0883d28b587778″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

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The pound continues to recover from its mini-budget shock, thanks to a pair of u-turns from Kwasi Kwarteng.

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The chancellor is bringing forward the announcement of his plan to bring down UK debts in the medium term, following pressure from the financial markets, economists and some MPs desperate to see how the ‘growth plan’, and large tax cuts, will be paid for.

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Kwarteng, who was previously set to publish his medium-term fiscal plan alongside a set of economic forecasts on 23rd November , will now announce it sooner – likely by the end of the month.

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Crucially for investors, we should also finally get full forecasts from Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

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News of the plan broke last night, just hours after Kwarteng ripped up the plan to scrap the 45p top tax rate for the highest earnings.

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As one government source put it to Reuters: “OBR can move quicker, so can we”.

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And so can the pound. And after hitting a record low last week around $1.035, it has now climbed above its mini-budget levels to around $1.135, the highest in almost two week.

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The recovery for sterling has settled some nerves in the currency market.

NatWest Markets’ head of economics and markets strategy John Briggs said dropping the 45p tax band had been well-received by investors.

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\n

“The about-face … will not have a huge impact on the overall UK fiscal situation in our view.

\n

“[but] Investors took it as a signal that the UK government could and is at least partially willing to walk back from its intentions that so disrupted markets over the past week.”

\n

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The Bank of England’s emergency intervention in the long-term borrowing gilt market is also helping calm nerves, although yesterday it only bought £22m of 30-year gilts and rejected £1.8bn of offers.

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That looked like a signal to the markets that while the BoE was determined to maintain stability, they would not buy gilts at any price to keep borrowing costs low

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Sending clear signal that this is a financial stability operation and they are not in the business of keeping gilt yields low for the sake of it

ie they are deliberately pushing back on the fiscal dominance narrative. Ball back in government's court

— Rupert Harrison (@rbrharrison) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1576945940505645057″,”id”:”1576945940505645057″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”f3516588-2dbf-43aa-a15f-4cee9b1c760d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Yeterday, the IFS thinktank warned that mammoth spending cuts would be needed to get borrowing back on track, if Kwarteng presses on with the rest of his tax-cutting mini-budget.

“,”elementId”:”360311e9-5068-473c-b8a9-4d98fcacb501″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

From a fiscal point of view important to remember cut to 45p rate was just about smallest part of the “mini budget”. What was a £45bn tax cutting package is now a £43bn package.

This U turn has, in itself, essentially no effect on fiscal sustainability.

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1576872608687325184″,”id”:”1576872608687325184″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”52f46371-6382-4ef4-8086-2a81fff5ad3c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And a new political row is brewing, over whether the government will lift universal credit and other working age benefits in line with inflation.

“,”elementId”:”baec4766-2960-459d-9bfc-90533ab33c28″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Failure to do so would be ‘hostile and harmful’, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation warned last weekend, and deliver a devastating blow to millions of families on low incomes.

“,”elementId”:”10f6ac36-3d5f-4550-a4a7-8ca3b121e86d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/sep/30/failure-to-raise-benefits-would-be-hostile-and-harmful-truss-is-warned”,”text”:”Failure to raise benefits would be ‘hostile and harmful’, Truss is warned”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”a5aad81d-3df9-4acc-bba2-c7b3a4885642″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

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    \n

  • 10am BST: Eurozone PPI index (showing how fast factory prices rose in August)

  • \n

  • 2pm BST: IMF to release October 2022 Global Financial Stability Report Analytical Chapters 3

  • \n

  • 3pm BST: US factory orders for August

  • \n

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Filtrai BETA

Hipotekos palūkanų normos staigiai kyla, nes sugriežtėja spaudimas

Žmonės, norintys patekti į būsto rinką arba grąžinti paskolas, jau susiduria su mažo biudžeto rinkos chaoso pasekmėmis.

Praėjusią savaitę iš rinkos ištraukę hipotekos sandorius, Didžiosios Britanijos bankai vėl žengia į būsto paskolų rinką, o palūkanų normos artėja prie 6%.

FT turi daugiau informacijos:

„Barclays“, „Skipton Building Society“, „NatWest“, „Virgin Money“ ir „Nationwide“ yra tarp skolintojų, kurie padidino naujų hipotekos sandorių palūkanų normas, nes prieš kiek daugiau nei savaitę buvo paskelbtas kanclerio Kwasi Kwartengo „mini“ biudžetas, dėl kurio labai išaugo paauksuotas pajamingumas.

Duomenų teikėjo „Moneyfacts“ duomenimis, vidutinė dvejų metų trukmės fiksuotų sandorių palūkanų norma pirmadienį šoktelėjo iki 5,75 procento, palyginti su 4,74 procento Kwartengo pranešimo dieną, rugsėjo 23 d.

Šis žingsnis apsaugos skolintojus nuo aukštesnių palūkanų normų, nes pinigų rinkos šiuo metu prognozuoja, kad Anglijos banko bazinė palūkanų norma kitą vasarą gali pasiekti beveik 5,5 proc.

Tačiau dėl to hipotekos paskolos tampa mažiau prieinamos, o kai kurie nelaimingi žmonės pastebės, kad dabar jų kaina išeina iš rinkos ne dėl jų kaltės.

Lenders insulate themselves with higher rates to see out the next few years, leaving many left out in the coldhttps://t.co/sE5w9R8EWZ

— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/emmafildes/status/1576935757516013568″,”id”:”1576935757516013568″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”2674effa-56f6-42a4-8634-6d18e9914691″}}”/>

Mel Žingsnis taip pat teigė, kad jis turės „ilgai galvoti“, jei bus paprašyta balsuoti už išmokų didinimą pagal pajamas, o ne infliaciją (tai reikštų realių išmokų mažinimą).

Iždo atrankos komiteto pirmininkas BBC Radio 4 laidai „Today“ sakė:

„Turėčiau pamatyti visas detales, turėčiau tai pamatyti raunde, bet turėčiau ilgai ir sunkiai apie tai galvoti.

„Kadangi paskutinį kartą nauda buvo padidinta, dėl mechanizmo veikimo jie buvo padidinti balandžio mėnesį, tačiau jie yra susieti su praėjusio rugsėjo mėnesio infliacija, o praėjusį kartą jis buvo padidintas tik 3,1 proc., nes infliacija buvo žema praėjusį rugsėjį, bet, žinoma, infliacija buvo daug didesnė už tą (balandžio mėn.).

„Taigi, iš tikrųjų mes jau dabar susiduriame su gana stipriu realiu šių pranašumų mažinimu, todėl manau, kad tai bus tikrai sunku.

Melas Stride’as: Tai gali reikšti mažesnį palūkanų normos kilimą lapkritį

Kwasi Kwartengo sprendimas paspartinti savo plano sumažinti Didžiosios Britanijos skolą paskelbimą gali paskatinti Anglijos banką kitą mėnesį ne taip smarkiai didinti palūkanų normas.

Taip mano konservatorių parlamentaras Mel StrideIždo komiteto pirmininkas, kuris teigia:

Jei OBR prognozė ir nauji fiskaliniai tikslai suteiks patikinimo, jų pakėlimas į priekį turėtų greičiau nuraminti rinkas ir sumažinti spaudimą didinti palūkanų normas, o tai būtų naudinga milijonams šalies gyventojų.

„Ypač prognozės paskelbimas prieš MPC posėdį lapkričio 3 d. gali padėti nuraminti mūsų palūkanų normų steigėjus, kad jie gali padidinti bazinę palūkanų normą mažiau, nei būtų kitu atveju.

Bankas turi nustatyti palūkanų normas lapkričio 3 d., o vyriausiasis ekonomistas Huw Pill jau nurodė, kad gali būti „žymus“ padidėjimas. Šiuo metu pinigų rinkose kainos kyla mažiausiai 1%.

Įvadas: Sterlingas atsigauna, nes Kwartengas pateikia skolos mažinimo planą

Labas rytas ir sveiki atvykę į mūsų nuolatinę informaciją apie verslą, pasaulio ekonomiką ir finansų rinkas.

Svaras ir toliau atsigauna po savo mažo biudžeto šoko dėl kelių Kwasi Kwartengo apsisukimų.

Kancleris ankščiau paskelbia apie savo planą sumažinti JK skolas vidutinės trukmės laikotarpiu, po finansų rinkų spaudimo, ekonomistai ir kai kurie parlamentarai labai nori pamatyti, kaip bus sumokėtas „augimo planas“ ir dideli mokesčių sumažinimai. .

Kwartengas, kuris anksčiau turėjo paskelbti savo vidutinės trukmės fiskalinį planą kartu su ekonominių prognozių rinkiniu lapkričio 23 d., dabar paskelbs jį anksčiau – greičiausiai iki mėnesio pabaigos.

Investuotojams labai svarbu, kad pagaliau turėtume gauti išsamias prognozes iš Didžiosios Britanijos nepriklausomos fiskalinės priežiūros tarnybos – Biudžetinės atsakomybės biuro (OBR).

Žinia apie planą pasklido praėjusią naktį, praėjus vos kelioms valandoms po to, kai Kwartengas sugriovė planą panaikinti didžiausią 45 pensų mokesčių tarifą, kad būtų uždirbtas didžiausias.

Kaip vienas vyriausybės šaltinis sakė „Reuters“: „OBR gali judėti greičiau, galime ir mes“.

Taip pat gali ir svaras. Praėjusią savaitę pasiekęs rekordiškai žemą lygį apie 1,035 USD, dabar jis pakilo virš savo mažo biudžeto lygio iki maždaug 1,135 USD, o tai yra aukščiausias lygis per beveik dvi savaites.

Svaras vs JAV doleris
Svaras vs JAV doleris Nuotrauka: Refinitiv

Didžiosios Britanijos sterlingų atsigavimas sutvarkė kai kuriuos nervus valiutų rinkoje.

NatWest Markets“ ekonomikos ir rinkų strategijos vadovas Jonas Briggsas teigė, kad investuotojai gerai įvertino 45 pensų mokesčių juostos panaikinimą.

„Apie veidas… mūsų nuomone, neturės didelės įtakos bendrai JK fiskalinei situacijai.

“[but] Investuotojai tai suprato kaip signalą, kad JK vyriausybė galėjo ir yra bent iš dalies pasirengusi atsisakyti savo ketinimų, kurie taip sutrikdė rinkas praėjusią savaitę.

Anglijos banko neatidėliotina intervencija į ilgalaikio skolinimosi paauksuotą rinką taip pat padeda nuraminti nervus, nors vakar jis nupirko tik 22 mln. svarų sterlingų 30 metų senumo ir atmetė 1,8 mlrd.

Tai atrodė kaip signalas rinkoms, kad nors BoE buvo pasiryžusi išlaikyti stabilumą, jie nepirks jauniklių bet kokia kaina, kad skolinimosi išlaidos būtų žemos.

Sending clear signal that this is a financial stability operation and they are not in the business of keeping gilt yields low for the sake of it

ie they are deliberately pushing back on the fiscal dominance narrative. Ball back in government's court

— Rupert Harrison (@rbrharrison) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1576945940505645057″,”id”:”1576945940505645057″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”f0a4f093-037a-4f6d-a4ee-6f6a5e408dc3″}}”>

Siunčiamas aiškus signalas, kad tai yra finansinio stabilumo operacija ir jie nesiima mažo paauksuoto pajamingumo dėl to

ty jie sąmoningai stumia atgal fiskalinio dominavimo naratyvą. Grįžkite į vyriausybės aikštę

– Rupertas Harrisonas (@rbrharrison) 2022 m. spalio 3 d

Vakar IFS ekspertų grupė perspėjo, kad norint grąžinti skolinimąsi, prireiks didžiulių išlaidų mažinimo, jei Kwartengas toliau vykdys likusį mokesčių mažinimo mini biudžetą.

From a fiscal point of view important to remember cut to 45p rate was just about smallest part of the “mini budget”. What was a £45bn tax cutting package is now a £43bn package.

This U turn has, in itself, essentially no effect on fiscal sustainability.

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) October 3, 2022

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1576872608687325184″,”id”:”1576872608687325184″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”4a59983c-7407-4376-b1a5-b57bd145f43d”}}”>

Fiskaliniu požiūriu svarbu prisiminti, kad sumažinimas iki 45 pensų buvo beveik mažiausia „mini biudžeto“ dalis. Tai, kas buvo 45 mlrd. svarų sterlingų mokesčių sumažinimo paketas, dabar yra 43 mlrd.

Šis apsisukimas savaime iš esmės neturi jokios įtakos fiskaliniam tvarumui.

– Paulas Johnsonas (@PJTheEconomist) 2022 m. spalio 3 d

Ir bręsta naujas politinis ginčas dėl to, ar vyriausybė panaikins visuotinį kreditą ir kitas darbingo amžiaus išmokas atsižvelgdama į infliaciją.

Jei to nepadarysite, tai būtų „priešiška ir žalinga“, praėjusį savaitgalį perspėjo Josepho Rowntree fondas ir suduotų niokojantį smūgį milijonams mažas pajamas gaunančių šeimų.

Darbotvarkė

  • 10:00 BST: euro zonos PPI indeksas (rodo, kaip greitai gamyklų kainos kilo rugpjūčio mėn.)

  • 14 val. BST: TVF paskelbs 2022 m. spalio mėn. pasaulinės finansinio stabilumo ataskaitos 3 analitinį skyrių

  • 15 val. BST: JAV gamyklos užsakymai rugpjūčio mėn